nuclear terrorism
How could nuclear terrorism occur? Terrorists don’t need to build an ICBM to unleash a nuclear attack
on a large population center. If they could obtain or build a functional atomic weapon, they could transport it in a vehicle to city and to detonate. Alternatively, the weapon could be shipped in a sealed cargo container and detonated in a port.
How could terrorists get a nuclear weapon? One possibility would be to steal an existing weapon. This is not
likely, as existing weapons are mostly highly secured. Also, most modern nuclear weapons have locking mechanisms to prevent unauthorized detonation. However, it would be possible to construct an “improvised nuclear device”, if you could obtain sufficient quantities of the nuclear “fuel”: fissile material. The most likely fuel would be highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is
used in over 20 countries in a variety of settings, not just in bombs. Designs for a crude HEU bomb are readily found on the internet, and building one is not out of the question for a group with sufficient funds and engineering expertise. Such weapons would be compact enough to smuggle into a country without detection.
How could terrorists acquire fissile material? There are two possible ways that fissile material could be acquired:
Black Market: Terrorists may purchase fissile material from arms dealers located in Eastern Europe or the Middle East. A recent report from the Associated Press revealed a large criminal network based in Moldova seeking to sell fissile material to terrorists. The report states, “authorities working with the FBI have interrupted four attempts in the past five years by gangs with suspected Russian connections that sought to sell radioactive material to Middle Eastern extremists.”
Theft: In many parts of the world, fissile material has minimal security. Experts have focused on Pakistan as a location in which theft is possible; the Nuclear Threat Initiative ranks it as the third-worst for nuclear security (before only North Korea and Iran).
How can we know if terror groups are looking to conduct a nuclear attack? Various terrorist groups including ISIS and Al
Qaeda have sought to acquire nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda sought fatwas that would allow them to conduct an attack explicitly killing millions, meaning weapons of mass destruction.
What would happen in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack? At “ground zero”, most people and things would be vaporized. A ring of fire would expand outward from there, causing a firestorm and destroying most buildings within a several mile radius. Radiation would kill many within hours, and many others would die within days and weeks from radiation poisoning. Depending upon where it was placed and how large the yield, casualties could be as high as 100,000. There would be little medical help available to the additional hundreds of thousands of wounded; emergency services would be mostly destroyed. There would
also be indirect consequences. If one bomb detonated in Washington, D.C., there might be implicit or explicit threats of attacks planned in other cities, which would lead to widespread panic, and economic and social disruption. Suspension of civil liberties would be a distinct possibility. In addition, there would likely be reactions in other countries, and there would strong temptations to
initiate preemptive military operations to neutralize any potential perceived threat.